Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China's economy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chor, Davin; Li, Bingjing
• 署名单位: Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103926
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: US-china tariff war; Night lights

摘要

This paper studies the impact of the US -China tariff war on China, using high -frequency night lights data and grid -level measures of tariff exposure. Exploiting within -grid variation over time and controlling extensively for grid -specific contemporaneous trends, we find that each onepercentage -point increase in exposure to the US tariffs was associated with a 0.59% reduction in night-time luminosity. This impact was highly skewed across locations: Grids with negligible direct exposure to the US tariffs accounted for 70% of China's population. But the tail 2.5% of China's population with the highest exposure saw an implied 2.52% (1.62%) decrease in income per capita (employment) relative to unaffected grids. These effects were moreover concentrated in locations with a high commuting openness. By contrast, we do not find significant effects from China's retaliatory tariffs, and offer evidence of several channels through which the impact on imported inputs was mitigated. In a parallel analysis at the prefecture level, we confirm that the US tariffs had discernible negative aggregate consequences.