International migration and illegal costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe smuggling routes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Friebel, Guido; Manchin, Miriam; Mendola, Mariapia; Prarolo, Giovanni
• 署名单位: Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Polytechnic University of Milan; University of Milano-Bicocca; University of Bologna
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103878
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: international migration; Human smuggling; Illegal migration; Arab spring

摘要

The 2011 Arab Spring marked the opening of the Central Mediterranean Route for irregular border crossings between Libya and Italy, which produced heterogeneous reductions of bilateral smuggling distances between country pairs in the Mediterranean region. We exploit this source of spatial and temporal variation in bilateral distance along land and sea routes to estimate the elasticity of irregular migration intentions for African and Near East countries. We estimate an elasticity of migration intentions to smuggling distances exceeding -3, mainly driven by countries with weak rule of law and high internet penetration. Our findings are consistent across irregular migration measures both at the aggregate and individual levels. We show that irregular migration elasticity is higher for youth, relatively skilled individuals and those with an informative advantage (having a social network abroad or a mobile phone).