Are trade wars class wars? The importance of trade-induced horizontal inequality

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Borusyak, Kirill; Jaravel, Xavier
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103935
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: trade liberalization; distributional effects; INEQUALITY

摘要

What is the nature of the distributional effects of trade? This paper demonstrates conceptually and empirically the importance of trade -induced horizontal inequality,i.e. inequality that occurs among workers with the same level of earnings before the trade shock. This type of inequality does not affect the income distribution but generates winners and losers at all income levels. To quantify the horizontal inequality and changes in the income distribution induced by trade in a data -driven way, we develop a characterization of the welfare impacts, governed by simple and intuitive statistics of labor market and consumption exposure to trade. In the U.S., we find substantial heterogeneity in exposure and thus in the welfare effects of trade shocks across workers. Over 99% of the variance of welfare changes from trade shocks arises within income deciles. These findings run against a popular narrative that trade wars are class wars.