Opening up in the 21st century: A quantitative accounting of Chinese export growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brandt, Loren; Lim, Kevin
• 署名单位: University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103895
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Foreign trade; export; import; output growth

摘要

China's rapid export growth has spurred extensive research investigating its effects on other economies. The exact causes of the boom as well as the slowdown in Chinese exporting after 2007 are less well -understood. We quantify the drivers of Chinese export growth using a general equilibrium model estimated with detailed trade and production data that capture rich heterogeneity across destinations, firm ownership types, production locations, and sectors. We find that the three key drivers of Chinese export growth overall are rising foreign demand, improvements in access to imported intermediates, and factor productivity growth within China. Weakening foreign demand and a lack of further improvements in imported inputs access largely explain the slowdown in exporting after 2007. Furthermore, important differences especially across sectors and firms of different ownership types caution against any single narrative.