HOW RELIABLE ARE MICROSIMULATION RESULTS - AN ANALYSIS OF THE ROLE OF SAMPLING ERROR IN A UK TAX-BENEFIT MODEL
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
PUDNEY, S; SUTHERLAND, H
署名单位：
University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Leicester; University of Cambridge
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0047-2727
DOI：
10.1016/0047-2727(94)90030-2
发表日期：
1994
页码：
327-365
关键词：
摘要：
We assess the statistical reliability of microsimulation models in two ways: by comparing simulated outcomes with survey 'actuals'; and by calculating asymptotic confidence intervals for a variety of summary measures. The confidence intervals we derive take account of re-weighting for differential survey response, and also the effects of imposing revenue-neutrality. They are calculated for a version of one of the most widely-used U.K. tax-benefit simulation models. The results suggest that baseline simulations are reasonably accurate, but that some widely-used measures of the effects of policy changes may be very imprecise estimates of population effects.
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