LEAVING SOME STONES UNTURNED - A REASSESSMENT OF ITERATIVE PLANNING-THEORY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: SPAGAT, M
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/0047-2727(94)01469-5
• 发表日期: 1995
• 页码: 85-105
• 关键词: ITERATIVE PLANNING; MARKET SOCIALISM; Bayesian learning; shortages

摘要

Drawbacks of standard iterative planning algorithms include: (i) planner actions are just on-paper calculations, without direct economic consequences, and may converge very slowly; (ii) planners cannot act systematically on hunches and intuitions; and (iii) planners can observe unrealistically detailed information. These problems are addressed through a Bayesian learning model. It is shown, in sharp contrast to the standard literature, that planners will not necessarily settle in the long run on even approximately optimal prices. In an example, the planner can end up setting prices in every period that guarantee chronic shortage. This is an outcome of a fully optimizing model.