Consequences of discretion in the formation of commodities policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McLaren, J
• 署名单位: Columbia University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00011-5
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 347-370
• 关键词: commodity policy; farm policy; time consistency

摘要

In a simple model of endogenous primary-commodity price-support policy, (i) policy is affected by private inventories, and (ii) private inventories are affected by speculative attempts to forecast policy. The interaction between these two forces is rich, yielding bubbles and extrinsic volatility, thus helping to explain some odd episodes observed in commodity markets. In addition, under some conditions a government that wishes to support the price but is unable to commit to future action may be impotent; and a government that does not want to support the price may be trapped into doing so by speculative activity. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.