Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gollier, C; Jullien, B; Treich, N
• 署名单位: Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; INRAE; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Universite de Montreal
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00052-3
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 229-253
• 关键词: irreversibility; comparison of experiments; precautionary principle; greenhouse effect; prudence

摘要

We consider the problem of the optimal use of a good whose consumption can produce damages in the future. Scientific progress is made over time that provides information on the distribution of the intensity of damages. We show that this progress induces earlier prevention effort only if prudence is larger than twice absolute risk aversion. This paper thus identifies the class of quite restrictive but plausible conditions such that scientific uncertainties justify an immediate reduction of the consumption of a potentially toxic substance. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A.. All rights reserved.