Escaping epidemics through migration? Quarantine measures under incomplete information about infection risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mesnard, Alice; Seabright, Paul
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2009.05.001
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 931-938
• 关键词: MIGRATION; Infectious diseases; Public health; Quarantine

摘要

This paper explores the implications for public policy of the fact that individuals have incomplete but private information about their exposure to infectious disease when they make migration decisions. In a 2-period model we study conditions under which the presence of quarantine measures may lead to inefficient outcomes by strengthening individuals' interest in migration to escape centres of disease and thereby imposing negative externalities on other uninfected individuals. We show first that when the disease has an epicentre, the marginal migrant imposes a net negative externality. Secondly, quarantine policies may sometimes encourage migration instead of discouraging it. Thirdly, even when they succeed in discouraging migration, quarantine policies may lower social welfare, and even increase overall disease incidence, if they go too far, thereby discouraging those intra-marginal migrants for whom private benefits exceed private costs by more than the negative externality they impose on others. (C) 2009 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.