Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Imai, Masami; Shelton, Cameron A.
• 署名单位: Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Wesleyan University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2010.12.009
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 837-849
• 关键词: Partisan effects; Taiwan

摘要

We examine the effects of party platforms on the economic opportunities of firms using a unique data set from a political prediction market in Taiwan, a country with two dominant parties whose political cleavage derives mainly from a single issue: the One China Principle. We find that during the 2008 Presidential campaign, the share price of Taiwanese firms with investments in the mainland responded strongly and positively to a positive electoral outlook for the KMT, the party which advocates lifting caps on cross-strait investment in mainland China. The response is strongest for those firms who have already hit their caps. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.