The tax evasion social multiplier: Evidence from Italy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Galbiati, Roberto; Zanella, Giulio
• 署名单位: University of Bologna; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.01.003
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 485-494
• 关键词: social interactions; Neighborhood effects; Social multiplier; Tax evasion; tax compliance; Excess variance

摘要

We estimate social externalities of tax evasion in a model where congestion of the auditing resources of local tax authorities generates a social multiplier. Identification is based on a contrast of the variance of tax evasion at different levels of aggregation. We use a unique data set that contains audits of about 80,000 small businesses and professionals in Italy and also provides an exact measure of reference groups in our model. We find a social multiplier of about 3, which means that the equilibrium response to a shock that induces an exogenous variation in mean concealed income is about 3 times the initial average response. This is a short-run effect that persists to the extent that auditing resources are not adjusted to internalize the congestion externality. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.