Interaction, protection and epidemics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Goyal, Sanjeev; Vigier, Adrien
• 署名单位: University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; University of Oslo
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.02.010
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 64-69
• 关键词: Social interaction; epidemics; vaccination

摘要

Individuals respond to the risk of contagious infections by restricting interaction and by investing in protection. We develop a model that examines the trade-off between these two actions and the consequences for infection rates. There exists a unique equilibrium: individuals who invest in protection choose to interact more relative to those who do not invest in protection. Changes in the contagiousness of the disease have non-monotonic effects: as a result interaction initially falls and then rises, while infection rates too may initial increase and then decline. We then consider a society with two communities that differ in their returns from interaction - High and Low. Individuals in isolated communities exhibit different behavior: the High community has a higher rate of protection and interaction, and a lower rate of infection. Integration amplifies these differences. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.