Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kroft, Kory; Lange, Fabian; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.; Katz, Lawrence F.
• 署名单位: University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; McGill University; Northwestern University; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/682390
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: S7-S54
• 关键词: labor-market; VACANCIES; insurance; BEHAVIOR; DYNAMICS

摘要

We explore the role of composition, duration dependence, and labor force nonparticipation in accounting for the sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We show that compositional shifts account for very little of the observed increase in LTU. Using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2002-7, we calibrate a matching model that allows for duration dependence in unemployment and transitions between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. The calibrated model accounts for almost all of the increase in LTU and much of the observed outward shift in the Beveridge curve between 2008 and 2013.