Cohort Size and the Marriage Market: Explaining Nearly a Century of Changes in US Marriage Rates

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bronson, Mary Ann; Mazzocco, Maurizio
• 署名单位: Georgetown University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/724047
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 877-920
• 关键词: premarital investments; sex-ratios; POWER; pill; Abortion; divorce; career; women; time

摘要

We document that the US marriage market is characterized by two systematic empirical patterns. First, there is a quantitatively large, strong, and persistent negative relationship between changes in cohort size and marriage rates of women. Second, the same negative correlation holds for men. We then establish the features a model should possess to generate these patterns. A standard matching model with search frictions is rejected by the data because it produces a negative relationship for women but a positive relationship for men. We generalize the standard model to show under what conditions it rationalizes both patterns.