Flipping a coin: Evidence from university applications

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dwenger, Nadja; Kuebler, Dorothea; Weizsaecker, Georg
• 署名单位: University Hohenheim; Technical University of Berlin; Humboldt University of Berlin; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.09.014
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 240-250
• 关键词: Preference for randomization; matching markets; Individual decision making; University admissions

摘要

We empirically investigate the possibility that a decision maker prefers to avoid making a decision and instead delegates it to an external device, e.g., a coin flip. A large data set from the centralized clearing-house for university admissions in Germany shows a choice pattern of applicants that is consistent with coin flipping and that entails substantial consequences for the matching outcome. In a series of experiments capturing the relevant features of university choice, participants often choose lotteries between allocations rather than certain allocations. This contradicts most theories of choice such as expected utility. A survey among university applicants links their choices to the experiments and confirms that the choice of random allocations is intentional (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.