Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hansen, Benjamin; Miller, Keaton; Weber, Caroline
• 署名单位: University of Oregon; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104159
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: FEDERALISM; Cross-border sales; spillover; Diversion; Prohibition; marijuana; natural experiment; regression discontinuity; Illegal drugs

摘要

Marijuana is partially prohibited: though banned federally, it is available to 1 in 4 US. adults under state statutes. We measure the size of the interstate trade generated by state-level differences in legal status with a natural experiment: Oregon allowed stores to sell marijuana for recreational use on October 1. 2015, next to Washington where stores had been selling recreational marijuana since July 2014. Using administrative data covering the universe of Washington's sales and a differences-in-discontinuities approach, we find retailers along the Oregon border experienced a 36% dedine in sales immediately after Oregon's market opened. We investigate the home location of recent online reviewers of marijuana retailers and find similar cross-border patterns. By the end of Washington's 2018 fiscal year, our results imply that Washington had earned between $44 million and $75 million in tax revenue from cross-border shoppers. These cross-border incentives may create a race to legalize. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.