First impressions: How leader changes affect bilateral aid

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rommel, Tobias; Schaudt, Paul
• 署名单位: Technical University of Munich; University of St Gallen
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104107
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: Dyadic leader change; UNGA voting realignment; Development aid

摘要

This paper investigates a new mechanism to explain politically induced changes in bilateral aid. We argue that shifts in the foreign policy alignment between a donor and a recipient country following leadership changes induce reallocation of aid. Utilizing data from the G7 and 130 developing countries between 1975 and 2012 and employing high dimensional fixed effects models, we show that incoming leaders in recipient countries, which politically converge towards their current donors, receive more aid commitments, compared to those that diverge. Accounting for donor leader change, we additionally find that incumbent recipient leaders have an opportunity to get even more aid when political change in donor countries moves them closer to the donor's foreign policy position. Thus, leadership turnover in recipient and donor countries makes otherwise inconsequential deviations in foreign policy alignment highly consequential for aid provision. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.