First among equals: The first place effect and political promotion in multi-member plurality elections

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dulay, Dean; Go, Laurence
• 署名单位: Singapore Management University; Autonomous University of Barcelona
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104455
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Rank effect; Multi-member plurality; Political promotion; regression discontinuity design; The Philippines

摘要

We study the impact of rank-based decision-making in a multi-member plurality electoral system by examining the decisions of Philippine legislative councilors to run for and win higher office. By focusing on multi-member plurality elections, we identify the effect of rank amongst politicians that hold the same office and received a similar number of votes. To identify the causal effect of rank, we conduct a close-elections RD at the village, municipality, and province levels. Our main result is the first place effect: incumbent first placers are 5-9% (1-4%) more likely to run (win) in future elections than incumbent sec -ond placers. The first place effect is unique among rank effects: subsequent rank comparisons yield sub-stantially weaker or insignificant results. Further evidence suggests that a variety of potential mechanisms-party alignment, strategic voting, differential levels of media exposure or the better perfor-mance of first placers-do not seem to explain our results. These results improve our understanding of the variety of ways rank effects interact with electoral systems. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.