Migration, externalities, and the diffusion of COVID-19 in South Asia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lee, Jean N.; Mahmud, Mahreen; Morduch, Jonathan; Ravindran, Saravana; Shonchoy, Abu S.
• 署名单位: The World Bank; University of Exeter; New York University; National University of Singapore; State University System of Florida; Florida International University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104312
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: coronavirus; international migration; Lockdown; bangladesh; INDIA; pakistan

摘要

The initial spread of COVID-19 halted economic activity as countries around the world restricted the mobility of their citizens. As a result, many migrant workers returned home, spreading the virus across borders. We investigate the relationship between migrant movements and the spread of COVID-19 using district-day-level data from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan (the 1st, 6th, and 7th largest sources of international migrant workers). We find that during the initial stage of the pandemic, a 1 SD increase in prior international out-migration relative to the district-wise average in India and Pakistan predicts a 48% increase in the number of cases per capita. In Bangladesh, however, the estimates are not statistically distinguishable from zero. Domestic out-migration predicts COVID-19 diffusion in India, but not in Bangladesh and Pakistan. In all three countries, the association of COVID-19 cases per capita and measures of international out-migration increases over time. The results show how migration data can be used to predict coronavirus hotspots. More broadly, the results are consistent with large cross-border negative externalities created by policies aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19 in migrant receiving countries. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.