Inequality of fear and self-quarantine: Is there a trade-off between GDP and public health?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aum, Sangmin; Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim); Shin, Yongseok
• 署名单位: University of London; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Washington University (WUSTL); National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104354
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: covid-19; sir model; testing; Quarantine; Economic inequality

摘要

We construct a quantitative model of an economy hit by a pandemic. People choose occupations and make work-from-home decisions to maximize income and minimize their fear of infection. Occupations differ by wage, infection risk, and the productivity loss when working from home. The model is calibrated to South Korea (SK) and the United Kingdom (UK) to compare SK's intensive testing and quarantine policy against UK's lockdown. We find that SK's policies would have worked equally well in the UK, dramatically reducing both deaths and GDP losses. The key contrast between UK's lockdown and SK's policies was not in the intensity of testing, but weak restrictions on the activity of many (UK) versus strict restrictions on a targeted few (SK). Lockdowns themselves may not present a clear tradeoff between GDP and public health either. A premature lifting of the lockdown raises GDP temporarily, but infections rise over time and people voluntarily choose to work from home for fear of infection, generating a W-shaped recession. Finally, we find that low-skill workers and self-employed always lose the most from both the pandemic itself and containment policies. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.