Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob; Splinter, David
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104983
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Covid-19 Wages Earnings Stimulus checks Unemployment insurance Countercyclical policy Government transfers; Covid-19 Wages Earnings Stimulus checks Unemployment insurance Countercyclical policy Government transfers

摘要

Using a panel of tax data, we follow individuals' earnings over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020-after the prior two recessions this measure decreased. This resulted from substantial Covid-era stimulus payments and unemployment insurance. With fiscal relief ending, bottom-quintile earnings in 2022 returned near pre-Covid levels. Among those starting in the top quintile, median real market earnings rose in 2020. Top-quintile earnings subsequently fell, although by less than around previous recessions.