Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gregory, Terry; Salomons, Anna; Zierahn, Ulrich
• 署名单位: IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Utrecht University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvab040
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 869-906
• 关键词: technological-change; labor-markets; EMPLOYMENT; GROWTH; jobs; polarization; DYNAMICS; demand; FUTURE; rise

摘要

Digital technologies displace labor from routine tasks, raising concerns that labor is racing against the machine. We develop an empirically tractable task-based framework to estimate the aggregate employment effects of routine-replacing technological change (RRTC), along with the labor and product demand channels through which this aggregate effect comes about, focusing on the role of inter-regional trade. While RRTC has indeed had strong displacement effects in Europe between 1999 and 2010, it has simultaneously created new jobs through increased product demand, resulting in net employment growth. However, the distribution of gains from technological progress matters for its job-creating potential.