Intertemporal substitution and new car purchases

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Copeland, Adam
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: RAND JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0741-6261
• DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12065
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 624-644
• 关键词: us automobile-industry; product differentiation; consumer inventory; secondary markets; durable-goods; prices; sales; BEHAVIOR; volatility; promotions

摘要

This article presents a dynamic demand model for motor vehicles. This approach accounts for the change in the mix of consumers over the model year and measures consumers' substitution patterns across products and time. I find intertemporal substitution is significant; consumers are more likely to change the timing of their purchase in reaction to a price increase rather than buy another vehicle in the same period. Further, I find automakers' use of large cash-back rebates at the end of the model year, although boosting overall sales, induces large numbers of consumers to delay their purchases and so pay lower prices.