Measuring long-run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Donna, Javier D.
• 署名单位: State University System of Florida; University of Florida
• 刊物名称: RAND JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0741-6261
• DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12397
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 945-994
• 关键词: discrete-choice models; time-series analysis; switching costs; transit ridership; state dependence; consumer demand; public transportation; multinomial probit; dynamic-analysis; automobile fuel

摘要

I develop a structural model of urban travel to estimate long-run gasoline price elasticities. I model the demand for transportation services using a dynamic discrete-choice model with switching costs and estimate it using a panel dataset with public market-level data on automobile and public transit use in Chicago. Long-run own- (automobile) and cross- (transit) price elasticities are substantially more elastic than short-run elasticities. Elasticity estimates from static and myopic models are downward biased. I use the estimated model to evaluate the response to several counterfactual policies. A gasoline tax is less regressive after accounting for the long-run substitution behavior.