Kuznets' tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Green, Adam S.; Feinman, Gary M.; Thompson, Amy E.; Cruz, Pablo; Chirikure, Shadreck; Kerig, Tim; Lawrence, Dan; Petrie, Cameron A.; Ortman, Scott G.
• 署名单位: University of York - UK; University of York - UK; Field Museum of Natural History (Chicago); University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET); University of Oxford; University of Kiel; Durham University; University of Cambridge; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-15036
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400603121
• 发表日期: 2025-04-22
• 关键词: world; GROWTH; SYSTEM

摘要

Understanding the relationship between inequality and economicgrowth is a critical science problem that hinders sustainable development. In 1955, Simon Kuznets hypothe sized that rising economicgrowth raises inequality, which levels off as that growth continues. Kuznets'curve, which is a cornerstone of development economics, was based on data from a small sample of rich capitalist economies. Here, we draw on the GINI database, which includes area measurements of 53,464 residences from 1,176 settlements dating from 21,000 BC to the present, and published data from the Spatial Analysis in Maya Studies (SAMS) group, to radically reevaluate Kuznets' curve. We use Gini coefficients of residential disparity, a proxy of inequality, and mean residence area, a proxy of productivity, to investigate past sustainable development in the Bronze Age Interaction Zone (BAIZ), the Mundo Maya, and Britain prior to, over the course of, and after the Roman conquest. We interpolate spatial patterns across each zone to statistically evaluate changes in inequality and economic growth. We find a recurring pattern in which phases of sustainable development, a rise in productivity without a rise in inequality, gave way to increasing inequality. These patterns resemble those Branko Milanovic termed Kuznets' waves, albeit at timescales better described as tides, which began after the introduction of weight metrology, an early form of economic governance associated with long-distance exchange. We posit that past sustainable development was predicated on balancing reciprocity from the bottom-up with mechanisms like early weight metrology but was repeatedly forestalled as inchoate elites co-opted these mechanisms.