Boreal forests are heading for an open state
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Rotbarth, Ronny; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten; Holmgren, Milena
署名单位：
Wageningen University & Research
刊物名称：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN/ISSBN：
0027-14588
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.240439112
发表日期：
2025-01-14
关键词：
摘要：
The boreal forest biome is warming four times faster than the global average. Changes so far are moderate, but time lags in responses may transiently maintain forest states which are no longer supported by current environmental conditions. Here, we explore whether tree cover dynamics hint at the state to which the biome may be shifting. Our results suggest that global boreal tree cover is heading for a unimodal state of open forest (30 to 50%), contrasting starkly to the bimodal distribution of dense forests (>60%) and sparse woodlands (5 to 15%) found today. A future open forest in a warmer world would likely increase the risk of forest fires, leading to potentially substantial releases of stored carbon.