Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Childs, Marissa L.; Lyberger, Kelsey; Harris, Mallory J.; Burke, Marshall; Mordecai, Erin A.
• 署名单位: University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Harvard University; Harvard University; Stanford University; Arizona State University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-14486
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2512350122
• 发表日期: 2025-09-16
• 关键词: global distribution; UNITED-STATES; HEALTH; malaria; disease; fever

摘要

Climate change is expected to pose significant threats to public health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite dramatic recent increases in dengue that many anecdotally connect with climate change, the effect of anthropogenic climate change on dengue remains poorly quantified. To assess this link, we assembled local-level data on dengue across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas. We found a nonlinear relationship between temperature and dengue incidence with the largest impact of 11 to 27%) of historical dengue incidence on average across our study countries for low or high emissions scenarios, respectively, with cooler regions projected to double in incidence due to warming while other currently hot regions experience little impact or even small declines. Under the highest emissions scenario, we estimate that and the development of strategies to mitigate future risks due to climate change.