A half- century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lobell, David B.; Di Tommaso, Stefania
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-13570
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2502789122
• 发表日期: 2025-05-20
• 关键词: crop yield; temperature; humidity; summer; LAND

摘要

Efforts to anticipate and adapt to future climate can benefit from historical experiences. We examine agroclimatic conditions over the past 50 y for five major crops around the world. Most regions experienced rapid warming relative to interannual variability, with 45% of summer and 32% of winter crop area warming by more than two SD (6). Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a key driver of plant water stress, also increased in most temperate regions but not in the tropics. Precipitation trends, while important in some locations, were generally below 16. Historical climate model simulations show that observed changes in crops' climate would have been well predicted by models run with historical forcings, with two main surprises: i) models substantially overestimate the amount of underestimate the increase in VPD in most temperate cropping regions. Linking agroclimatic data to crop productivity, we estimate that climate trends have caused current global yields of wheat, maize, and barley to be 10, 4, and 13% lower than they would and rice. Aggregate global yield losses are very similar to what models would have prepredicted by modeling studies, such as farmer shifts to longer maturing varieties.