Deliberation during online bargaining reveals strategic information

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cotet, Miruna; Zhao, Wenjia Joyce; Krajbich, Ian
• 署名单位: University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Warwick; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-13168
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2410956122
• 发表日期: 2025-02-18
• 关键词: DECISION-MAKING; response-times; accumulator model; speed; prediction; allocation; attention; accuracy; thinking; explain

摘要

A standard assumption in game theory is that decision- makers have preplanned strategies telling them what actions to take for every contingency. In contrast, nonstrategic decisions often involve an on- the- spot comparison process, with longer response times (RT) for choices between more similarly appealing options. If strategic decisions also exhibit these patterns, then RT might betray private information and alter game theory predictions. Here, we examined bargaining behavior to determine whether RT reveals private information in strategic settings. Using preexisting and experimental data from eBay, we show that both buyers and sellers take hours longer to accept bad offers and to reject good offers. We find nearly identical patterns in the two datasets, indicating a causal effect of offer size on RT. However, this relationship is half as strong for rejections as for acceptances, reducing the amount of useful private information revealed by the sellers. Counter to our predictions, buyers are discouraged by slow rejections-they are less likely to counteroffer to slow sellers. We also show that a drift- diffusion model (DDM), traditionally limited to decisions on the order of seconds, can account for decisions on the order of hours, sometimes days. The DDM reveals that more experienced sellers are less cautious and more inclined to accept offers. In summary, strategic decisions are inconsistent with preplanned strategies. This underscores the need for game theory to incorporate RT as a strategic variable and broadens the applicability of the DDM to slow decisions.