Cold feet

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Epstein, Larry G.; Kopylov, Igor
• 署名单位: Boston University; University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1933-6837
• 发表日期: 2007-09-01
• 页码: 231-259
• 关键词: Temptation; pessimism; non-Bayesian updating; optimism; ambiguity; moment of truth; confidence

摘要

Individuals often lose confidence in their prospects as they approach the 'moment of truth.' An axiomatic model of such individuals is provided. The model adapts and extends (by relaxing the Independence axiom) Gul and Pesendorfer's model of temptation and self-control to capture an individual who changes her beliefs so as to become more pessimistic as payoff time approaches. In a variation of the model, the individual becomes more optimistic at an ex post stage in order to feel better about her available options.