Updating preferences with multiple priors

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hanany, Eran; Klibanoff, Peter
• 署名单位: Tel Aviv University; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1933-6837
• 发表日期: 2007-09-01
• 页码: 261-298
• 关键词: Updating; dynamic consistency; ambiguity; Ellsberg; Bayesian; consequentialism

摘要

We propose and axiomatically characterize dynamically consistent update rules for decision making under ambiguity. These rules apply to the preferences with multiple priors of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), and are the first, for any model of preferences over acts, to be able to reconcile typical behavior in the face of ambiguity (as exemplified by Ellsberg's paradox) with dynamic consistency for all non-null events. Updating takes the form of applying Bayes' rule to subsets of the set of priors, where the specific subset depends on the preferences, the conditioning event, and the choice problem (i.e., a feasible set of acts together with an act chosen from that set).