The ex ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nascimento, Leandro
• 署名单位: New York University
• 刊物名称: THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1933-6837
• DOI: 10.3982/TE896
• 发表日期: 2012-09-01
• 页码: 535-570
• 关键词: Aggregation of preferences; uncertainty; D70; D81

摘要

This paper presents an analysis of the problem of aggregating preference orderings under subjective uncertainty. Individual preferences, or opinions, agree on the ranking of risky prospects, but are quite general because we do not specify the perception of ambiguity or the attitude toward it. A convexity axiom for the ex ante preference characterizes a (collective) decision rule that can be interpreted as a compromise between the utilitarian and the Rawlsian criteria. The former is characterized by the independence axiom as in Harsanyi (1955). Existing results are special cases of our representation theorems, which also allow us to interpret Segal's (1987) two-stage approach to ambiguity as the ex ante aggregation of (Bayesian) future selves' opinions.