Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half- century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Li, Xueke; Mann, Michael E.; Wehner, Michael F.; Christiansen, Shannon
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-12205
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2504482122
• 发表日期: 2025-06-24
• 关键词: atmospheric circulation; CLIMATE-CHANGE; el-nino; weather extremes; jet-stream; teleconnections; amplification; temperature; DYNAMICS; IMPACT

摘要

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Ni & ntilde;o events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large- scale quasi- stationary wave patterns and quasi- resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi- resonant amplification is not well captured by current- generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.