Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Chambers, Robert G.; He, Yurou; Lobell, David B.
• 署名单位: Cornell University; Cornell University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Stanford University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-11758
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2411010122
• 发表日期: 2025-03-18
• 关键词: development spillovers; crop yields; GROWTH; returns

摘要

Increasing agricultural productivity is a gradual process with significant time lags between research and development (R&D) investment and the resulting gains. We estimate the response of US agricultural Total Factor Productivity to both R&D investment and weather and quantify the public R&D spending required to offset the emerging impacts of climate change. We find that offsetting the climate-induced productivity slowdown by 2050 will require R&D spending over 2021 to 2050 to grow at 5.2 to 7.8% per year under a fixed spending growth scenario or by an additional $2.2 to $3.8B per year under a fixed supplement spending scenario (in addition to the current spending of similar to$5B per year). This amounts to an additional $208 to $434B or $65 to $113B over the period, respectively, and would be comparable in ambition to the public R&D spending growth that followed the two World Wars.