High tree diversity exposed to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions even under minimal anthropogenic climate change

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boonman, Coline C. F.; Hoeks, Selwyn; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Guo, Wen-Yong; Enquist, Brian J.; Maitner, Brian; Merow, Cory; Svenning, Jens-Christian
• 署名单位: Aarhus University; Wageningen University & Research; Radboud University Nijmegen; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut Botanic de Barcelona (ICUB); INRAE; AgroParisTech; Universite de Lorraine; East China Normal University; University of Arizona; The Santa Fe Institute; State University System of Florida; University of South Florida; University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-10780
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2420059122
• 发表日期: 2025-07-01
• 关键词: seed dispersal; gene flow; refugia; DYNAMICS; patterns; disturbance; adaptation; responses; plants; range

摘要

Tree species worldwide face increasing exposure to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, which may trigger biome shifts and ecosystem disruptions. We quantified climate change exposure-shifts to species' currently unoccupied climate zones-for 32,089 tree species globally by 2100, assessing both species-level and local tree diversity risks. On average, 69% of species are predicted experience macroclimatic shifts in at least 10% of their range, while 14% face exposure in over 50% of their range under a high-emission (4 degrees C warming) future scenario. This suggests that most species retain substantial climate refugia within their current range. However, local tree diversity exposure is predicted to be severe in vast regions, including Eurasia, the northwestern United States and Canada, northern Chile, and the Amazon Delta. Under a moderate (2 degrees C warming) scenario, high tree diversity exposure is mostly restricted to taiga regions in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings provide conservative estimates of climate-driven biodiversity risk, as our approach focuses solely on macroclimate and does not account for additional stressors such as land-use change or species interactions. Identifying tree species and areas of high macroclimatic shift exposure allows for targeted conservation strategies, including species stability monitoring, assisted migration, and the protection of climate refugia. Our results offer foundation for prioritizing conservation actions in a rapidly changing climate, ensuring long-term ecosystem resilience.