Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Hanig, Lily; Harper, Corey D.; Nock, Destenie; Michalek, Jeremy J.
署名单位：
Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University
刊物名称：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN/ISSBN：
0027-10307
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2420609122
发表日期：
2025-09-16
关键词：
life-cycle assessment
摘要：
We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency's projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency's roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO2eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO2eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.