Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: Evidence from 13 low-and middle-income countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jing, Renzhi; Heft-Neal, Sam; Wang, Zetianyu; Chen, Jie; Qiu, Minghao; Opper, Isaac M.; Wagner, Zachary; Bendavid, Eran
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University; RAND Corporation; Princeton University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-9207
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2413962122
• 发表日期: 2025-05-06
• 关键词: disaster; IMPACT

摘要

Increasing educational attainment is one of the most important and effective strategies for health and economic improvements. The extent to which extreme climate events disrupt education, resulting in reduced educational attainment, remains understudied. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) may be uniquely vulnerable to losing schooling after disasters due to the poor physical condition of schools and the lack of resources to mitigate unexpected household shocks. Our analysis assesses this overlooked social cost of tropical cyclones on schooling attainment. We study the education records of nearly 5.4 million individuals living in 13 LMICs that experienced tropical cyclones between 1954 and 2010. By comparing individuals living in the same locations but with different exposure levels, we estimate the change in the likelihood that exposure during preschool age is associated with a 0.5 percentage point increase in the likelihood of never attending schooling (2.5% above baseline), with larger effects (up to 8.8% increase) from stronger storms. These effects are more pronounced among we estimate that 79,000 children in the 13 study countries did not start school due to tropical cyclones, and, across all affected students, tropical cyclones resulted in a total loss of 1.1 My of school. These impacts, identified among some of the world's projected to increase with climate change.