Endogenous competition and the underrealized reproduction of infectious diseases

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huang, Peng; Almquist, Zack W.; Butts, Carter T.
• 署名单位: University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8964
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2502676122
• 发表日期: 2025-06-10
• 关键词: NETWORKS; models

摘要

Scientific inquiry about the transmissibility of infectious diseases is largely based on the basic reproduction number (R0) and its derivations. This paper describes a mechanism overlooked in most conventional analyses, in which a disease can endogenously compete with itself when multiple infectious individuals race to infect the same susceptible individual, thereby reducing the effective reproductive rate. Utilizing an empirically calibrated network epidemiological model of wild-type COVID-19 diffusion in its early pandemic, we show that the mechanism would be expected to reduce its reproductive rate by an average of 39%. Simulation experiments further identify different types of endogenous competition mechanisms and their relative effect sizes. We highlight the incorporation of endogenous competition mechanism as a necessary step in realistically modeling the reproduction process of infectious diseases.