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作者：Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：The properties of the stochastic process followed by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper pursues two approaches to modeling consumption dynamics and measuring how much society dislikes fluctuations, one statistical and one economic. The statistical approach estimates the properties of consumption and calculates the costs of having consumption fluctuating around its mean growth. The paper finds that persistence is a crucial determinant of the cost...
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作者：Sarno, Lucio; Valente, Giorgio
作者单位：City St Georges, University of London; University of Leicester
摘要：Using novel real-time data on a broad set of economic fundamentals for five major US dollar exchange rates over the recent float, we employ a predictive procedure that allows the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals to evolve over time in a very general fashion. Our key findings are that: (i) the well-documented weak out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models may be caused by poor performance of model-selection criteria, rather than lack of information content in ...
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作者：Canova, Fabio
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the U. S. using a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. There are instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policy rule, and the variance of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification of the policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest, but those of the policy rule and the covariance m...
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作者：Stiroh, Kevin J.
摘要：This paper examines the declining volatility of U. S. output growth from a production perspective. At the aggregate level, increased output stability reflects decreased volatility in both labor productivity growth and hours growth, as well as a significant decline in the covariance. The decline in output volatility can also be traced to less volatile labor input and total factor productivity growth and the smaller covariance between them. At the industry level, the decline in volatility appear...
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作者：Laubach, Thomas
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Estimating the effects of government debt and deficits on Treasury yields is complicated by the need to isolate the effects of fiscal policy from other influences. To control for the effects of the business cycle, and associated monetary policy actions, on debt, deficits, and interest rates, this paper studies the relationship between long-horizon forward rates and future federal government deficits and debt as projected by the Congressional Budget Office. For the entire 30-year sample for whi...
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作者：Rege, Mari; Telle, Kjetil; Votruba, Mark
作者单位：Universitetet i Stavanger; University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University
摘要：We investigate the impact of plant downsizing on disability pension utilization in Norway. Plant downsizing substantially increases the disability entry rate of workers in affected plants. Workers originally employed in plants that downsized by more than 60% between 1995 and 2000 were 24% more likely to utilize disability pensions in 2001 than comparable workers in non-downsized plants. We also estimate significant effects of downsizing on future earnings and mortality, which suggest that the ...
