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作者：Sa, Filipa; Towbin, Pascal; Wieladek, Tomasz
作者单位：University of London; King's College London; Bank of England
摘要：We use a panel VAR to study the effect of shocks to capital inflows, which are identified using sign restrictions, on the housing market in OECD countries. To explore how effects of these shocks change with the structure of the mortgage market and the degree of mortgage securitization, we allow the VAR coefficients to vary with mortgage-market characteristics. Our results indicate that capital-inflow shocks have a significant and positive effect on real house prices, real credit available to t...
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作者：Arellano, Manuel
摘要：The purpose of this paper is to review newly developed identification and estimation tools that are relevant for the analysis of dynamic dependence structures of income risk. I present an application to nonlinear permanent-transitory models of household income using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but the empirical approach is more generally applicable. Household income processes are of interest because the size of shocks, the nature of their persistence, and cross-househo...
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作者：Matsuyama, Kiminori
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：This paper studies theoretically how the cross-country differences in the institutional quality (IQ) of domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such IQ differences also cause productivity differences across countries. IQ affects productivity by changing productivity-agency-cost trade-offs across heterogeneous investment projects. Such institution-induced productivity differences are shown to have effects on the investment and capital flows that are opposi...
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作者：Guajardo, Jaime; Leigh, Daniel; Pescatori, Andrea
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal pol...
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作者：Kramarz, F.; Thesmar, D.
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作者：Atalay, Enghin
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：There is substantial within-industry variation in the prices that plants pay for their material inputs. Using plant-level data from the US Census Bureau, I explore the consequences and sources of this variation in materials prices. For a sample of industries with relatively homogeneous products, the standard deviation of plant-level productivity would be 7% smaller if all plants faced the same materials prices. Moreover, plant-level materials prices are persistent, spatially correlated, and po...
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作者：Fenske, James
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：State capacity matters for growth. I test Bates' explanation of pre-colonial African states. He argues that trade across ecological boundaries promoted states. I find that African societies in ecologically diverse environments had more centralized states. This is robust to reverse causation, omitted heterogeneity, and alternative interpretations of the link between diversity and states. The result survives including non-African societies. I test mechanisms connecting trade to states, and find ...
