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作者：Benczur, Peter; Ilut, Cosmin L.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper presents direct evidence for relational contracts in sovereign bank lending. Unlike the existing empirical literature, its instrumental variables method allows for distinguishing a direct influence of past repayment problems on current spreads (a punishment effect in prices) from an indirect effect through higher expected future default probabilities (loss of reputation). Such a punishment provides positive surplus to lenders after a default and decreases the borrower's present disc...
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作者：Pagel, Michaela
摘要：This paper explores the quantitative asset-pricing implications of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences, as introduced by Koszegi and Rabin (2009, American Economic Review, 99(3), 909-936), in an otherwise traditional Lucas-tree model. I find that the model easily succeeds in matching the historical equity premium and its variability when the preference parameters are calibrated in line with micro evidence. The equity premium is high because expectations-based loss aversion makes...
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作者：Persson, Petra; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
作者单位：Stanford University; Paris School of Economics
摘要：Performance-based promotion schemes in administrative hierarchies have limitations. Chinese provincial leaders, despite facing strong career concerns, make different policy decisions depending on their career backgrounds. Provincial party secretaries who have risen from low to high positions within the province they govern (locals) spend a higher share of budgetary resources on education and health care and invest less in construction infrastructure than party secretaries who have made their m...
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作者：Battaglini, Marco; Coate, Stephen
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：This paper presents a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment. The underlying economy is one in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and increases in public production. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. Policy decisions are made by a legislature consisting of representatives from different political districts. With the available policies, it is possible for the government to completely eliminate unempl...
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作者：Benjamin, Daniel J.; Rabin, Matthew; Raymond, Collin
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Southern California; Harvard University; University of Oxford
摘要：People believe that, even in very large samples, proportions of binary signals might depart significantly from the population mean. We model this nonbelief in the Law of Large Numbers by assuming that a person believes that proportions in any given sample might be determined by a rate different than the true rate. In prediction, a nonbeliever expects the distribution of signals will have fat tails. In inference, a nonbeliever remains uncertain and influenced by priors even after observing an a...
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作者：Sun, Stephen (Teng); Yannelis, Constantine
作者单位：Peking University; Stanford University
摘要：In insurance markets, the uninsured can generate a negative externality on the insured, leading insurance companies to charge higher premia. Using a novel panel data set and a staggered policy change that introduces exogenous variation in the rate of uninsured drivers at the county level in California, we find that uninsured drivers lead to higher insurance premia: a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of uninsured drivers raises premia by roughly1%. We calculate the monetary fine on the u...
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作者：Burda, Michael C.; Weder, Mark
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Adelaide
摘要：Payroll taxes represent a major distortionary influence of governments on labor markets. This paper examines the role of time-varying payroll taxes and the social safety net for cyclical fluctuations in a nonmonetary economy with labor market frictions and unemployment insurance, when the latter is only imperfectly related to search effort. A balanced social insurance budget induces countercyclical payroll taxation, renders gross wages more rigid over the cycle and strengthens the model's endo...
