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作者：D'Erasmo, Pablo; Mendoza, Enrique G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Europe's debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk-averse debt and nondebtholders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as the concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favorin...
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作者：Asonuma, Tamon; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Munich
摘要：Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptivelyprior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new data set and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978-2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post-default renegotiations. The model improves the fit with the data and expl...
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Bonn
摘要：Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policy. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper examines the co-evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries from 1870 to 2012....
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作者：Brutti, Filippo; Saure, Philip
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：With the beginning of the Euro Crisis, the long-standing trend of European financial integration reversed. Investors unwound cross-border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt. In other words, debt obligations were repatriated. We use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration: (i) repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries; (ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; (iii) the public ...
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作者：Muller, Andreas; Storesletten, Kjetil; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：University of Oslo; University of Zurich
摘要：We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model that yields testable implications about the fiscal policy run by governments of different political color. Successive generations of voters choose taxation, expenditure, and government debt through repeated elections. Voters are heterogeneous by age and by the intensity of their preferences for public good provision. The political equilibrium switches stochastically between left- (pro-public goods) and right-leaning (pro-private consumption) gover...
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作者：Kaminsky, Graciela Laura; Vega-Garcia, Pablo
作者单位：George Washington University
摘要：The theoretical literature on sovereign defaults has focused on adverse shocks to debtors' economies, suggesting that defaults are of an idiosyncratic nature. Still, sovereign debt crises are also of a systemic nature, clustered around panics in the financial center, such as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in the aftermath of the US Subprime Crisis in 2008. Crises in the financial centers are rare disasters and, thus, their effects on the periphery can only be captured by examining long epi...
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作者：Kalemli-Oezcan, Sebnem; Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, Kenneth
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
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作者：Hale, Galina; Obstfeld, Maurice
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments...
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作者：Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Munich
摘要：This paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long-term perspective. We quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1920-1939, focusing on the defaults on official (government to government) debt in advanced economies after World War I; and 1978-2010, focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors. Debt relief was substantial in both eras, averaging 21% of GDP in the 1930s and 16% of GDP in recent decades. We then analyze the...
