-
作者：Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：Yale University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Credit booms are not rare, some end in a crisis (bad booms) whereas others do not (good booms). We document that credit booms start with an increase in productivity growth, which subsequently falls faster during bad booms. We develop a model in which a crisis happens when a credit boom transits toward an information regime with careful examination of collateral. As this examination is more valuable when collateral backs projects with low productivity, crises are more likely during booms that d...
-
作者：Kirchmaier, Tom; Sandi, Matteo; Machin, Stephen; Witt, Robert
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Surrey
摘要：In many historical episodes, criminal activity displays booms and busts. One clear example is the case of metal crime in the United Kingdom (and elsewhere) where, in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices, thefts rose very sharply in the 2000s, after which they fell. This paper studies the respective roles of prices, policing and policy in shaping this crime boom and bust. Separate study of each reveals metal crime being driven up via sizeable and significant metal...
-
作者：Cubitt, Robin; van de Kuilen, Gijs; Mukerji, Sujoy
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Tilburg University; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：During recent decades, many new models have emerged in pure and applied economic theory according to which agents' choices may be sensitive to ambiguity in the uncertainty that faces them. The exchange between Epstein (2010) and Klibanoff et al. (2012) identified a notable behavioral issue that distinguishes sharply between two classes of models of ambiguity sensitivity that are importantly different. The two classes are exemplified by the alpha-maxmin expected utility (MEU) model and the smoo...
-
作者：Chark, Robin; Chew, Soo Hong; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：University of Macau; Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; National University of Singapore
摘要：Results from studies on risk taking behavior suggest that people tend to be risk seeking when making choices over lotteries that involve longshots: small probabilities of winning sizable payoffs. To investigate preferences over longshots systematically, we conduct an incentivized experiment using state lotteries in China, each involving a single prize and fixed winning odds. This enables our construction of single-prize lotteries involving winning odds between 10-5 and 10-1 and winning prizes ...
