GOOD BOOMS, BAD BOOMS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo
• 署名单位: Yale University; University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvy058
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 618-665
• 关键词: historical-perspective; factor productivity; financial crises; corporate-debt; UNITED-STATES; credit booms; AGENCY COSTS; net worth; BUSINESS; technologies

摘要

Credit booms are not rare, some end in a crisis (bad booms) whereas others do not (good booms). We document that credit booms start with an increase in productivity growth, which subsequently falls faster during bad booms. We develop a model in which a crisis happens when a credit boom transits toward an information regime with careful examination of collateral. As this examination is more valuable when collateral backs projects with low productivity, crises are more likely during booms that display larger productivity declines. We test the main predictions of the model and identify the default probability as the main component of measured productivity that lies behind crises.