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作者：Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy; Rohner, Dominic; Thoenig, Mathias
作者单位：University of Geneva; University of Lausanne; University of Oxford
摘要：Prevailing theories of democracy focus on class conflict. In contrast, we study democratic transition when ethnic tensions are more salient than the poor/rich divide, building a model where (i) ethnic groups negotiate about allocating the economic surplus and (ii) military and political mobilizations rest on the unobserved strength of ethnic attachment. Free and fair elections elicit information and restore inter-ethnic bargaining efficiency. Autocrats can rationally choose democratic transiti...
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作者：Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production v...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Turin; Collegio Carlo Alberto; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：An increase in uncertainty is not contractionary per se. What is contractionary is a widening of the left tail of the GDP growth forecast distribution, the downside uncertainty. On the contrary, an increase of the right tail, the upside uncertainty, is mildly expansionary. The reason why uncertainty shocks have been previously found to be contractionary is because movements in downside uncertainty dominate existing empirical measures of uncertainty. The results are obtained using a new econome...
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作者：Bhattarai, Saroj; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Tokyo
摘要：We present a unified framework to study interconnections between business cycle and international trade models. This unified framework is built upon the standard competitive, representative-firm international real business cycle model and features production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors. Our main theoretical result is that this unified framework is equivalent in aggregate implications to dynamic international trade models featuring monopolistic competition, endogen...
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作者：Daminato, Claudio; Padula, Mario
作者单位：Lund University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between...
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作者：Boeckerman, Petri; Kortelainen, Mika; Laine, Liisa T.; Nurminen, Mikko; Saxell, Tanja
作者单位：University of Jyvaskyla; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Turku; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; Aalto University; VATT Institute for Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the effects of health information technology designed to improve access to medication while limiting overuse through easier prescription renewal and improved information provision. We focus on benzodiazepines, a commonly prescribed class of mental health and insomnia medications, which are highly effective but potentially addictive. We study the staggered rollout of a nationwide electronic prescribing system over four years in Finland and use population-wide, individual-level admin...
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作者：Epstein, Larry G.; Halevy, Yoram
作者单位：McGill University; University of Toronto; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：Decisions under uncertainty are often made with information whose interpretation is uncertain because multiple interpretations are possible. Individuals may perceive and handle uncertainty about interpretation differently and in ways that are not directly observable to a modeler. This paper identifies and experimentally examines behavior that can be interpreted as reflecting an individual's attitude toward such uncertainty.
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Pekkarinen, Tuomas; Salvanes, Kjell G.; Sarvimaeki, Matti
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); VATT Institute for Economic Research; Aalto University; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：Upon assuming power for the first time in 1935, the Norwegian Labour Party delivered on its promise for a major schooling reform. The reform raised minimum instruction time in less-developed rural areas and boosted the resources available to rural schools, reducing class size, and raising teacher salaries. We show that cohorts more intensively affected by the reform increased their education and experienced higher labor income. Our main result is that the schooling reform also boosted support ...
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作者：Deserranno, Erika; Nansamba, Aisha; Qian, Nancy
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：This paper investigates whether NGO-provided basic healthcare crowds out or crowds in similar services provided by the government in rural Uganda. We find that NGO entry reduces the number of government workers, which leads to a reduction in government-provided health services. The results are driven by the NGO often hiring the government worker in places where skilled labor is scarce. In places where skilled labor is relatively abundant, the NGO hires a second person and complements governmen...
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作者：Ogeda, Pedro; Ornelas, Emanuel; Soares, Rodrigo R.
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; Insper
摘要：We show that the Brazilian trade liberalization in the early 1990s led to a permanent relative decline in the vote share of left-wing presidential candidates in the regions more affected by the tariff cuts. This happened even though the shock, implemented by a right-wing party, induced a contraction in manufacturing and formal employment in the more affected regions, and despite the left's identification with protectionist policies. To rationalize this response, we consider a new institutional...
