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作者：Krusell, Per; Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Rogerson, Richard; Sahin, Ayseguel
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Commonly used frictional models of the labor market imply that changes in frictions have large effects on steady state employment and unemployment. We use a model that features both frictions and an operative labor supply margin to examine the robustness of this feature to the inclusion of an empirically reasonable labor supply channel. The response of unemployment to changes in frictions is similar in both models, but the labor supply response present in our model greatly attenuates the effec...
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作者：Bravo, David; Mukhopadhyay, Sankar; Todd, Petra E.
作者单位：Universidad de Chile; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper studies the effects of school reform in Chile, which adopted a nationwide school voucher program along with school decentralization reforms in 1981. Since then, Chile has had a relatively unregulated, competitive market in primary and secondary education. It therefore provides a unique setting in which to study how these reforms affected school attainment and labor market outcomes. This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of school attendance and work decisions using panel ...
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作者：Heckman, James; Moon, Seong Hyeok; Pinto, Rodrigo; Savelyev, Peter; Yavitz, Adam
作者单位：University of Chicago; University College Dublin; Yale University
摘要：Social experiments are powerful sources of information about the effectiveness of interventions. In practice, initial randomization plans are almost always compromised. Multiple hypotheses are frequently tested. Significant effects are often reported with p-values that do not account for preliminary screening from a large candidate pool of possible effects. This paper develops tools for analyzing data from experiments as they are actually implemented. We apply these tools to analyze the influe...
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作者：Hansen, Lars Peter; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：University of Chicago; New York University
摘要：A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging. The arrival of signals induces the consumer to alter his posterior distribution over models and parameters. The consumer's specification doubts induce him to slant probabilities pessimistically. The pessimistic probabilities tilt toward a model that puts long-run risks into consumption growth. That contributes a countercyclical hist...
