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作者：BRADA, JC; KING, AE
作者单位：Lehigh University
摘要：The ability of planners in Poland and the USSR to recognize and act to eliminate market disequilibrium in the markets for grain and meat is tested by means of an econometric model of grain and meat production, consumption and trade. Planners' perceptior s of excess demand for grain, meat and foreign exchange are shown to influence production and trade decisions in a way that tends to reduce excess demand or supply. Nevertheless, the markets for grain, meat and foreign exchange are shown to be ...
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作者：COVEY, T; BESSLER, DA
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：A procedure is proposed to test for the existence of a fully causal relationship between two variables. The method involves contrasting the probabilistic forecasting performance of a univariate and bivariate specification for the same variable Y. If there exists some theory or belief that X causes Y, and the addition of a variable X to the information set of a prequential forecasting system for a variable Y reduces miscalibration and/or the level of forecast uncertainty with respect to Y's dis...
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作者：HUTCHISON, M; JUDD, JP
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：The information value of central bank announcements of projected future money growth is shown to depend both on the accuracy of the announcements and the extent to which the announcements themselves are anticipated by the public. We construct a new data set on internal Federal Reserve money projections. These projections, which are kept secret while they are in force, are comparable in many important respects to publicly announced Bank of Japan money projections. Using a derivative of the law ...
