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作者：Kandel, E; Zilberfarb, BZ
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Bar Ilan University
摘要：We test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning: that economic agents interpret information identically. We use a data set based on a survey of Israeli business executives forecasting future inflation. One of the main advantages of using this data is that a major change in the inflation regime in 1985 can be treated as a natural experiment in new beliefs formation. We develop a methodology for testing this hypothesis and find evidence that...
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作者：Auten, G; Carroll, R
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：Research on the distribution of income during the 1980s has identified a trend towards increasing inequality, which may be the continuation and acceleration of trends spanning several decades. This paper explores to what extent behavioral responses to the tax changes during the 1980s may also explain the rising inequality. The 1986 Tax Reform Act is used as a natural experiment to explore the roles played by both taxes and a variety of nontax factors. Our principal finding is that both tax rat...
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作者：Adams, JD
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper explores the effect of research and development (R&D) and capital on factor intensity and skill bias in a sample of manufacturing plants. Firm and industry R&D as well as plant level capital increase the factor intensity of labor over materials. In contrast, skill bias originates in portions of capital and R&D. Equipment capital and firm R&D in the same product as a plant are consistently skill biased, while structures are biased against skill. Furthermore, general firm and industry...
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作者：Ball, L; Mankiw, NG
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Harvard University
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作者：Kilian, L
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：A Monte Carlo analysis of the coverage accuracy and average length of alternative bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse-response estimators shows that the accuracy of equal-tailed and symmetric percentile-t intervals can be poor and erratic in small samples (both in models with large roots and in models without roots near the unit circle). In contrast, some percentile bootstrap intervals may be both shorter and more accurate. The accuracy of percentile-t intervals improves with sample siz...
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作者：Rose, E
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：This paper examines the relationship between consumption smoothing and excess female mortality, by asking if favorable rainfall shocks in childhood increase the survival probabilities of girls to a greater extent than they increase boys' survival probabilities for a sample of rural Indian children. In order to avert the issue of selection bias due to underreporting of births of girls, a methodology is employed that does not require data on births by gender. The results indicate that favorable ...
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作者：Hellerstein, JK; Imbens, GW
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：In this paper we analyze the estimation of coefficients in regression models under moment restrictions in which the moment restrictions are derived from auxiliary data. The moment restrictions yield weights for each observation that can subsequently be used in weighted regression analysis. We discuss the interpretation of these weights under two assumptions: that the target population (from which the moments are constructed) and the sampled population (from which the sample is drawn) are the s...
