Differential interpretation of information in inflation forecasts
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Kandel, E; Zilberfarb, BZ
署名单位：
Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Bar Ilan University
刊物名称：
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0034-6535
DOI：
10.1162/003465399558193
发表日期：
1999-05
页码：
217-226
关键词：
摘要：
We test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning: that economic agents interpret information identically. We use a data set based on a survey of Israeli business executives forecasting future inflation. One of the main advantages of using this data is that a major change in the inflation regime in 1985 can be treated as a natural experiment in new beliefs formation. We develop a methodology for testing this hypothesis and find evidence that is inconsistent with the identical-interpretation hypothesis, but is consistent with the proposed alternative.
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