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作者：Sasaki, Yuya; Ura, Takuya; Zhang, Yichong
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of California System; University of California Davis; Singapore Management University
摘要：This paper considers estimation and inference for heterogeneous counterfactual effects with high-dimensional data. We propose a novel robust score for debiased estimation of the unconditional quantile regression (Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009)) as a measure of heterogeneous counterfactual marginal effects. We propose a multiplier bootstrap inference and develop asymptotic theories to guarantee the size control in large sample. Simulation studies support our theories. Applying the proposed m...
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作者：Chan, Joshua C. C.
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This is, however, at the expense of modeling flexibility, as it rules out cross-variable shrinkage, that is, shrinking coefficients on lags of other variables more aggressively than those on own lags. We develop a prior that has the best of both worlds: it can acc...
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作者：Faccini, Renato; Yashiv, Eran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University
摘要：Hiring is a costly activity reflecting firms' investment in their workers. Microdata show that hiring costs involve production disruption. Thus, cyclical fluctuations in the value of output, induced by price frictions, have consequences for the optimal allocation of hiring activities. We outline a mechanism based on cyclical markup fluctuations, placing emphasis on hiring frictions interacting with price frictions. This mechanism generates strong propagation and amplification of all key macroe...
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作者：Tsai, Yi-Chan; Yang, C. C.; Yu, Hsin-Jung
作者单位：National Taiwan University; National Taiwan University; Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Chengchi University
摘要：With capital-skill complementarity, the secular decline in the price of capital equipment due to equipment-specific technological progress (ESTP) keeps pushing up the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labor and raising the skill premium. This paper quantitatively characterizes the dynamics of optimal taxation in response. Two main results emerge, regardless of whether the Ramsey (1927) or the Mirrlees (1971) approach is adopted. First, a tax on capital equipment corrects the pecuniary e...
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作者：Abbott, Brant; Gallipoli, Giovanni
作者单位：Queens University - Canada; University of British Columbia
摘要：Through certainty equivalent consumption (CE) measures, we show that dispersion of current earnings, expenditures, and net worth overstate welfare inequality. This is largely due to the unaccounted value of future earnings, which we call human wealth. The latter mitigates permanent-income inequality, though its influence is diminished by the growing importance of assets in lifetime wealth. Average expenditures and CE inequality roughly doubled between 1983 and 2016 and, to weigh these offsetti...
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作者：Aristodemou, Eleni; Rosen, Adam M.
作者单位：University of Cyprus; Duke University
摘要：In this paper, we analyze a discrete choice model for partially ordered alternatives. The alternatives are differentiated along two dimensions: the first an unordered horizontal dimension, and the second an ordered vertical dimension. The model can be used in circumstances in which individuals choose among products of different brands, wherein each brand offers an ordered choice menu, for example, by offering products of varying quality. The unordered-ordered nature of the discrete choice prob...
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作者：Costa-Gomes, Miguel A.; Cueva, Carlos; Gerasimou, Georgios; Tejiscak, Matus
作者单位：University of St Andrews; Universitat d'Alacant
摘要：We report on two novel choice experiments with real goods where subjects in one treatment are forced to choose, as is the norm in economic experiments, while in the other they are not but can instead incur a small cost to defer choice. Using a variety of measures, we find that the active choices (i.e., those that exclude the deferral outside option) of subjects in the nonforced-choice treatment are generally more consistent. We also find that the combined deferral and active-choice behavior of...
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作者：Bonhomme, Stephane; Weidner, Martin
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Oxford; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one-step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map i...
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作者：Glas, Alexander; Hartmann, Matthias
作者单位：University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Milano-Bicocca; University of Milano-Bicocca
摘要：Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel stylized fact that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect the fact...
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作者：Andreyanov, Pasha; Caoui, El Hadi
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：If bidders are better informed than the seller about a common component of auction heterogeneity, the seller can allocate more efficiently by keeping her reserve price secret and revising it using submitted bids. We build a model of a first-price auction under unobserved auction heterogeneity-imperfectly observed by the seller-that captures this rationale and derive conditions for identification. An application to French timber auctions, where such revisions are widely used, shows that having ...
